I haven’t written about Covid-19 before.Maybe I’m biased and nervous, because at nearly 83, and it’s old blokes like me who are most vulnerable.
But I’m glad we have a compassionate PM who has said several times now that she will not sacrifice our health on the altar of GDP. The health of New Zealanders will be the number one priority, and healthy New Zealanders is a prerequisite for a vibrant economy.
Despite the right wing angst of the Hoskings of this world, our economy has fared well too. As Jacinda has said, it’s no good having thousands with Covid-19 who are clogging our hospitals, some dying, and all unable to work. The economy will suffer badly. The selfishness of these critics knows no bounds.
Just this week Richard Prebble, good old neo-liberal, suggested putting Steven Joyce in charge. That would be like handing the border keys to Mr Delta, and giving control to the coronavirus.
Of course we will have difficult decisions to make post lockdown; when and how and who do we open the border to?
I think too many of us have not realised that there will be no return to the old normal, and neither should there be.
The planet is on fire, species extinction is rife because of habitat destruction, yet we still refuse to adjust our life style. Although the neo-liberal experiment of the 80s and 90s has been proved a dismal failure, it was so deeply rooted it has been hard to dig out.
I was at a meeting where Roger Douglas, architect in New Zealand of the neo-liberal revolution, was present, and although only discussed in passing, it was clear Douglas had no regrets, and wished he had been able to go even further before Lange called for a cup of tea. I understand, his National Party successor, Ruth Richardson, notorious for her self-styled ‘mother of all budgets’ also has no regrets. In Britain, Thatcher also crowed, “this lady is not for turning”, and stuck to her guns as long as she could.
The important questions are at what point will we open the border if Covid-19 looks like it’s been eliminated, or secondly, if the virus is still active in the community and not eliminated at all, what then?
So as of today, Monday 30 August, so far so good. Today’s total case number was 53, a big drop from yesterday’s 83. The PM was careful not to gloat at the 4pm stand up, but was cautiously optimistic that we have reached a plateau, possibly even beginning to fall. Have we peaked, she was asked? “We hope so,” she replied. The R number was down below 1 which was very encouraging. Less than one means one case is infecting fewer than one person. Delta has a reputation for an R value of 5 or 6.
The PM thanked Aucklanders for their heavy lifting for the whole country, and urged us to continue our vigilance and respect the lockdown rules.
There remains one tricky situation. This virus has hit seven essential workers, and the government is anxious for that number to remain very low. All essential workplaces are being assessed to see if tighter restrictions are needed to keep these workers safer.
The case history looks like this:
Lockdown Wednesday 18 August Day 1-10 cases. The twelve days since have spawned the following new cases; 11, 10, 30, 21, 35, 41, 62, 68, 70, 82, 83 and today 53. That 53 looks a good number, but the government will be looking for 50, 40, 30 20 10 5, 5, 2, 2, maybe even 0 in coming days, before elimination can be claimed.
There are great hopes it can be achieved, and if it is, some doubters, especially across the Tasman will be silenced. Scott Morrison has not been a kind neighbour in recent days.
There remains the big follow up question. How does the border opening happen, who gets in, and how do we continue to protect ourselves while Delta, or even its successor, is rampant worldwide? High levels of vaccination should help the number of people who a Covid case passes the infection on to. (John Elliott)
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Published 3 September 2021