I’ve come back to this after the machinations of the last month. Would you believe a day is a long time in politics?
At the start of 2020, National was polling as well as Labour, and looked as if it might make Labour a one term government. One term is quite rare in New Zealand. We generally give a new government a second chance, and quite often a third term.
I can remember NZ elections back to 1954 when I was a fifth former (year 11). Since then, Labour had a one term stint 1957-1960, and again 1972-1975.
But NZ has been hit by a global corona virus pandemic which forced a national lockdown. It has been internationally acclaimed that Jacinda Ardern has made an exceptional job of leading the team of five million eliminating the virus from our shores. Her, and Labour’s popularity, has skyrocketed recently.
It looked like Labour would sleepwalk back into power, possibly able to govern alone.
Then the old saw ‘a week is a long time in politics’ came back to nibble at Labour’s lead. A few glitches at the border, some people leaving isolation without being tested, has caused dismay, and caused Labour to lose some support.
Simon Bridges was dumped as National Party leader, Todd Muller installed in his place, with our local MP Nikki Kaye as his deputy.
The first new poll showed National climbing back somewhat, although Muller wasn’t catching fire.
Paula Bennett resigned and it became clear that two factions still existed in National—one for, and one against, Bridges. National started to tread water again.
Next came the leaks at the border as returning Kiwis flooded back home and went into isolation. A number turned out to be bringing Covid-19 home with them from Britain, the US, India, in fact from all around the globe.
Labour pretty much got that sorted and then National fired an own goal. They complained about breeches of security , and then, lo and behold, former president Michelle Boag tried some dirty tricks, releasing confidential details about Covid cases. Muller has floundered around trying to shut down a scandal, Kaye has tried pretty unconvincingly to calm it down, and the National Party overall has again sunk in the popular opinion stakes.
There has even been talk of another leadership change for National, but one thing seems certain, Labour again looks likely to romp back into power, possibly to govern alone, but more likely with the Greens still getting 5 or 6%.
New Zealand First’s chances of return look slim. Peters is 75, has had a couple of minor health setbacks, and seems to have lost enough support to take them below 5%, and out of parliament. He is however, a good campaigner, and something of a Teflon parliamentarian.
Act looks like surviving, even growing a little, but no other party looks a chance.
A lot of water is still to flow under the bridge between now and 19 September, but the election at this point looks Labour’s to lose.
Locally, here in Auckland Central, I did expect Nikki Kaye to win handily, although she is up against two excellent candidates in Chloe Swarbrick (Greens) and Helen White ( Labour). The total centre-left vote may exceed Nationals but will be split by Chloe and Helen, neither of whom can win without some kind of Epsom-like accommodation.
Now Kaye is gone and a new National candidate is not yet selected.
And now has it happened again. A new bombshell. Muller has resigned as I was writing this. National is now in crisis mode, deciding who and how to select another new leader.
The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour 54.5%, National 27%, The Greens 9%, Act 5% and New Zealand first 1.5%.
It would be a miracle if National could now win from here in September.
Kaye, Collins, Mitchell, Adams, Bridges for a second time of asking: we’ll know well before this Ponsonby News goes to press. It’s Collins—crusher Collins.
But don’t write National off. Remember a similar scenario in 2017 when a little known MP called Jacinda Ardern took over leadership of the Labour Party very close to the 2017 election and pulled off a stunning victory.
You don’t get two Arderns in three years, so the new National leader will receive a poisoned chalice and probably lose quite badly.
Fortunately, not all New Zealanders believe National has a divine right to rule.
But the new National leader does believe in National’s divine right to rule-the hard right winger. Judith Crusher Collins is now where she’s always wanted to be-leader and Prime Minister in waiting-maybe. Back to the future-Gerry Brownlee, 64, is the new deputy leader.
So, Collins, with numerous faux pas to her credit (I’m a woman of colour - the colour white) is installed we look forward to a lively campaign.
She will have a hard job convincing me that with her as leader, National is now a party on the wrong side of history.
Latest News as we go to press (Reid Research Poll).
Labour 61%, National 25%, Greens 5.7%, Act 3% and NZ First 2%. That would give Labour 77 seats, and they could govern alone. (JOHN ELLIOTT)
#helenwhite #aucklandcentral #nationalparty #jacindaarden #labourparty #vote #votenow #waitematalocalboard. #greenparty