Covid 19 is not the first worldwide pandemic, but it is the worst for more than one hundred years.
Through good Government management, we appear on the verge of total elimination in New Zealand, while many countries are still being ravaged. The US and the UK have been badly hit. I have a son and two granddaughters in London and fear for their health. Africa is on the edge of a serious outbreak, South America is seriously threatened and, most worrying of all, Singapore is suffering from a second wave, having supposedly stamped it out.
It’s nowhere near over yet.
New Zealand seems to be doing well. New cases are few, we have not had too great a death toll, and the Government is looking to cautiously open NZ Inc for business again.
The roads are quiet, pollution is way down. We heard moreporks calling to each other a few nights ago, and other birds are chirping away in an otherwise almost silent city. The quietness has given time for thought and contemplation and for random acts of generosity.
Our front porch has been adorned with figs, feijoas, veggie plants, a bottle of wine and chocolates left at the door by kind family, friends and neighbours. Each was a gesture greatly appreciated and enjoyed. Many thanks – you know who you are.
This is a time to survive and plan how to thrive when the lockdowns are lifted. It is a time to think, not just quickly return to our bad old ways. What matters most in life? It’s certainly not money, unless you’re at the bottom of the economic ladder. Then you need more help.
What will the new normal look like? If we revert to mindless consumerism and selfish individualism, ignore the planet that sustains us, but is under such stress, and refuse to take the essential steps towards genuine sustainability, we will not only have missed a golden opportunity, but we will probably have said goodbye to our earthly home – at least as we know it now.
We have an opportunity and a Government who can, and hopefully will, take urgent steps on inequality, poverty and climate change. Jacinda has said she will not sacrifice our health and wellbeing on the altar of GDP.
New Zealand has a very low debt to GDP ratio by world standards, thanks to prudent fiscal management by successive governments of both political stripes.
It was always said that National looked after our finances better than Labour. That theory has been debunked in recent history. Michael Cullen was a careful financial manager under Helen Clark, as was Bill English under John Key and Jim Bolger.
Our debt to GDP was set by the Labour-led Government to be limited to 20%. It has since crept up to nearer 25%, but remains very low when you consider that Australia’s is 47%, China’s 51%, Germany’s 64%, the US 82%, the UK 89%, and Japan a whopping 253% debt to GDP.
The United Nations has declared 60% to be a ‘prudential’ level. Thus, New Zealand could borrow billions more before hitting unacceptable levels of debt. However, our private debt, mainly in housing, is very high.
Grant Robertson has made a good start, and looks destined to continue the good financial management record of his immediate finance predecessors. He has, however, the scope to borrow more to level the bumpy and uneven playing field that is New Zealand.
I think he will.
Let’s hope the pandemic dies away, that the September election takes place as scheduled, and that Labour and the Greens are given
a well deserved second term. They will have plenty to do. (John Elliott)