Proposed changes to Plan Change 120 could result in around 38,000 additional homes across Auckland over the next decade if adopted, according to new analysis from Auckland Council’s Chief Economist Unit. Using the Auckland Housing Supply Model, the analysis examined how the revised proposal could influence future housing supply compared with the current Auckland Unitary Plan settings.
Read the full insights paper here.
The revised Plan Change 120 proposal focuses additional housing capacity in places with good access to jobs, services and public transport. This includes around the city centre, metropolitan and town centres, rapid transit stations and frequent transit routes within 10 kilometres of the city centre, the region’s highest-density employment centre.
Chief Economist Gary Blick says the modelling points to a substantial increase in housing supply if the proposed planning changes are adopted.
"Auckland now has nearly a decade of evidence under the Auckland Unitary Plan. That experience helps us better understand how housing supply may respond to future planning changes. The revised proposal is forecast to increase housing supply by around 36 per cent, equivalent to approximately 38,000 additional homes over 10 years, compared with the operative plan.”
The analysis forecasts an average of 14,300 new homes a year under the revised proposal, compared with 10,500 homes a year under current planning settings.
The growth is expected in areas with strong demand and good transport connections. “The proposal would enable more homes in locations that are already well connected to employment, services and public transport. That gives more people the opportunity to live close to the places they need to go every day,” says Blick.
"The value of the model is that it helps moves the discussion beyond theoretical development capacity and towards estimating what housing outcomes may occur under different planning scenarios."
The modelling suggests increased housing supply could also help ease future affordability pressures.
“When housing supply can respond more readily to demand, it helps reduce upward pressure on house prices. Our estimates suggest prices could be around 3 to 5 per cent lower than they otherwise would be,” he says.
Mr Blick adds that the benefits could extend beyond housing, with more residents living closer to jobs and services supporting a more productive city.
“The location of housing matters. Enabling more homes in accessible locations can improve connections between workers, jobs and services, supporting productivity and making better use of existing infrastructure.”
The analysis estimates Auckland’s regional GDP could be 0.2 to 0.5 per cent higher after 10 years under the revised proposal.
The report concludes there is greater confidence in the direction of change: housing supply is expected to be higher, more homes are likely to be built in accessible locations, and pressure on house prices could be lower than under the current planning rules.
The consultation stage for proposed changes to PC120 is complete, and the next stage is the Independent Hearings Panel hearing public submissions.
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