Real Natural Hazards Government insists that councils prepare for natural hazard disasters so, recently, my council considered its submission to Government as proposed by staff on this topic.
Given recent history, flooding was deservedly high on the list of issues which cascaded down to tsunamis, climate change, fire and earthquakes.
The plans from this work make sense for flooding for instance, where council is spending big sums on making space for water and other stormwater initiatives as saving lives and property are the sensible drivers for such work.
However, some of these issues, in particular earthquakes, which force seismic strengthening costs on building owners, make no sense at all.
Rather than saving lives, the financial stress involved in seismic strengthening is depressing many citizens; plus one of the real threats to Auckland – volcanoes, is conveniently ignored, probably because the Wellington bureaucrats driving this are self focussed on their own real earthquake risks.
A review of Auckland’s geology shows no signs of earthquake activity in the last 100,000 years but there are 40 volcanoes here, the oldest of which is 40,000 years and the newest, Rangitoto, is around 800 years so we are probably due for another at some time. Not only do they show up at around 1000 year intervals but they are getting bigger.
Other than thinking about it, there probably isn’t much preparation we can do for a volcano, but our emergency teams should list volcanoes as a natural hazard and do some preparation based on what has happened in places like Iceland and Hawaii.
Back to the seismic strengthening costs, which have become a big earner for some consultants writing reports, preparing estimates of building resistance and then proposed strengthening and also preparing the dreaded earthquake resistance rating.
This figure, based on poorly researched nonsense from the Christchurch earthquakes, is what sets in train months of worry to owners of apartment buildings when this magically derived figure is less than 35% of a notional figure of 100% of earthquake resistance capacity.
It ludicrously treats earthquake resistance as some exact science that can accurately predict the response to an unknown level of earthquake attack, when in fact it is the figure that results from box ticking inputs from that dreadful bureaucracy MBIE, the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment, the three things it was designed to prevent.
I have been an engineer in the building and civil sectors for long enough to know that what constitutes understanding of earthquake resistance is just what currently is the latest fashion in thinking in this field.
We have been through soft ground-floor theories that failed in Californian earthquakes, to shear resistant towers, to flexible base shear foundations, to exo-structure frames, the current fashion, and sooner or later an earthquake shows up that defeats these theories. So why are we forcing owners of these buildings into dire financial straits for something that in Auckland hasn’t occurred for 100,000 years, especially when the expensive repairs probably won’t work?
Even the proponents of this seismic nonsense point out that a fully complying building gives the inhabitants a chance of death at 1 in a million, same as struck by lightning and for non complying at a tenth of that which is about 10 times less likely than death in a car accident – so why do we force residents into such stress over something less likely then what we face every day?
The reason is, once again, Wellington bureaucrats determined to ruin people’s lives, so I want to list Wellington bureaucrats as a very important hazard that Aucklanders should resist by ignoring such central government nonsense.
One of the things that I hope the new Government will consider is a review of these ridiculous seismic strengthening costs and their horrific financial impact on people. Look at the folk in Taranaki who were unable to sit in a simple rugby grandstand because of a seismic assessment.
This simple building is only full for about 10 80-minute footy games a year, or 0.15% of the year for an earthquake that might come once in a thousand years there, so the chances of dying are way less than the chances of winning Lotto’s biggest bonus.
No perspective has been allowed in this debate and I am keen to stop all expenditure in Auckland on seismic strengthening unless the building is likely to fall down anyway, in which case nobody would be living there in the first place.
I get stories of residents beside themselves over the worry of these seismic ratings and that is causing way more trouble than the earthquakes and yet MBIE don’t mention volcanoes.
Enough of this. We have enough to worry about without inventing problems. Let’s tackle real stuff like ram raids and the other myriad of social problems before we put more people into the mental health issues caused not by earthquakes but by politicians and bureaucrats saving us from earthquakes. (Wayne Brown, BE FIPENZ)
Mayor.Wayne.Brown@aucklandcouncil.govt.nz
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Published: November 2023