John Elliott: Which Democrat will face Trump for President in 2020?

The race for the Democratic Party nomination for US President next year is on in earnest.

Many have failed to excite voters and raise enough money to continue and have dropped out, but as I write this piece there are still 16 in the field.

Democrats want a candidate who shares their values for America, but they also urgently want someone who can beat Trump. So, electability versus policy is an important dilemma for many democrats. Almost every day new polls emerge.

Since early this year, three candidates have led the field – former vice president Joe Biden, senator Bernie Sanders, and senator Elizabeth Warren. These three are attracting between 20 and 25% of the vote each. A young, gay man who is Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a city of 100,000 people, Pete Buttigieg, is polling fourth and rising. At 37, an Afghanistan veteran, and more moderate than Sanders and Warren, he has developed a large following among moderates who think Biden is too old. Buttigieg is raising lots of campaign money from small donors.

The rest of the declared field are polling in single digits and look to have no chance. It is still three months until the first primary in Iowa on 3 February and so much could change in that time.

So what are ‘primaries’? The democratic candidate will be chosen state by state. Delegates, the numbers determined by the size of the state, will take their vote to the Democratic National Convention on 13 July 2020, where the nominee will be selected. The first state to vote will be Iowa on 3 February with 49 delegate votes, followed by New Hampshire with 31 delegates. Then will follow so-called Super Tuesday on 3 March when 15 or 20 states vote, including big ones like California with 546 delegate votes and Texas with 258.

Super Tuesday will weed out most of the field, possibly leaving only two or three candidates to continue the fight. It may even determine the winner.

Finally, the democratic nominee will be selected from pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention where total delegate numbers will be about 4300, with more than half needed for a win. There are also super-delegates, party officials who can vote however they wish at the National Conference – about 500 of them. Historically, they have not gone against the pledged delegates’ state votes.

Both Biden and Sanders have high name recognition, but are in their late 70s. Biden has produced some stumbling performances in recent debates, while Sanders had a heart attack and a stent implanted several weeks ago. Biden’s strength is his eight years of Vice Presidential loyalty to Obama. This makes him particularly popular among African Americans who are a very important constituency for the Democratic Party.

So what about Elizabeth Warren? She is my pick. She is also no spring chicken at 70 years, but is fit, a brilliant speaker, witty and has announced the most comprehensive policy proposals of all candidates. “I have a plan for that,” has become one of her catch cries.

Warren has headed off Sanders in recent polls, and has bested Biden in several. She is on the up, and is now becoming a target for her opponents who see her as a potential nominee and have begun to criticise her. Some democrats think she is too left-wing to beat Trump.

Warren is still not a household name in the US, but her name recognition is growing fast. She has built a formidable grassroots team, and is raising millions of dollars for her campaign. Unlike Biden, she has eschewed money from large corporates.

Elizabeth Warren has been a Senator for Massachusetts since 2012, when she beat the incumbent republican, Scott Brown, who is now Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand.

Before that, Warren was a Law Professor at Harvard University. Supporters, and Warren herself, credit her time as a primary school teacher in her home state of Oklahoma for teaching her how to communicate well with students. She can be a bit preachy but has a clear and witty speaking delivery.

Although some Democrats think Warren is too politically liberal, she has declared herself a capitalist (unlike Sanders who calls himself a democratic socialist). Still, Warren would hit the wealthy with new taxes, including a 2% tax on households with over $50 million, rising to 3% on portfolios over $1billion.

Much of the extra tax revenue would go towards a comprehensive Medicare-for-all policy which is Warren’s signature plan.

Trump’s support is falling all over the US, but he still has a hard core of dedicated supporters, so he will be no pushover in 2020.

Poll match ups with leading Democratic candidates show Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg all beating Trump in theoretical head-to-head votes.

It’s a long process and history shows that leading candidates can be derailed at any time. Much also hangs on the outcome of the current impeachment trial now in progress. Can Trump be derailed?   (JOHN ELLIOTT)